Odds of Asteroid 2024 YR4 Hitting Earth in 2032 Rise, Says NASA
The probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth in 2032 has bumped up again, now standing at approximately 3% – the highest probability ever assigned – as per NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA). This asteroid has gained increased notoriety due to its potential to collide with our planet. It falls into the “city killer” category due to its immense size and destructive potential.
Since its discovery in December 2024, the risks associated with this near-Earth asteroid making an impact have continually increased. Initially, it posed a 1% chance of hitting land, a threat significant enough to necessitate formal public notification from NASA and ESA. It is extremely rare for an asteroid to reach this 1% threshold.
As per the estimations by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, there is currently a 3.1% chance that the asteroid will hit Earth on December 22, 2032. This potential collision could occur in a small window of time when the asteroid’s orbit around the sun intersects with Earth’s path. However, the odds of a collision are still relatively small, standing at about 1 in 32. The European Space Agency’s latest probability estimate is slightly lower than NASA’s, at 2.8%. Both risk estimates have seen revisions and increments since last week when they were closer to 2%.
Astronomers and researchers speculate that as they uncover more about the asteroid, which will be scrutinized by the James Webb Space Telescope before it disappears from view in April, the probability could drop to zero. The risk assessment is primarily based on an area of “uncertainty” in outer space, where the asteroid may or may not end up. Rising odds reflect new insights into this area, explains Richard Moissl, the head of the European Space Agency’s Planetary Defence Office.
The anticipation of a collision is determined by comparing the size of the Earth, which is within the uncertainty area, to the entire scope of the uncertainty of where the asteroid could be at the critical moment. This comparison amounted to about a 1% chance when the international awareness threshold was reached. Since then, as more is known about the uncertainty region, its size has reduced. Therefore, Earth, maintaining the same size, takes up a larger portion of the region than before. This scientifically increases the probability, although nothing has materially changed. Moissl emphasized that even a 3% chance of hitting Earth corresponds to a 97% chance of missing it, leading to the conclusion that 2024 YR4, in all probability, will not pose threats to Earth.
As our knowledge grows, the uncertainty will further decrease, Moissl adds. He expects the risk to narrow down so much that Earth will no longer be within this uncertainty region, dropping the impact probability to zero. Astronomical experts predict that the chance of a crash will most likely dip below 1% before April, as the asteroid’s orbit takes it too far from Earth for humans to see it on the ground. After that, 2024 YR4 will not be visible again for four years.
In the event of its route leading to a “close flyby” of Earth, the probability of a collision could continue to rise, albeit moderately. Despite this, Moissl assures that “this is still no cause for alarm,” although international space organizations are taking this risk seriously. The asteroid, with its width ranging from 40 to 90 meters, has the potential to annihilate a mid-sized city on Earth. If researchers find its actual size to be closer to the upper end of the range, it could flatten some of the world’s largest metropolitan areas.